We’re hours away (let’s say 30-ish upon writing this) from the NBA Draft and, of course, the biggest debate is over who goes No. 1 to the Chicago Bulls. It’s not as enticing a debate as last year’s Greg Oden-or-Kevin Durant discussion, but it is decidedly more intriguing than 2006 when the Toronto Raptors took Andrea Bargnani with the No. 1 pick and Adam Morrison whent to Charlotte with the No. 3. Lamarcus Aldridge went No. 2 but ended up in Portland, which took Tyrus Thomas and sent him east to Chi-City.
And even though this year’s draft is far from the finest group of potential pros, it’s nowhere near as wretched as the 2000 version which featured, among other dogs, the likes of Darius Miles (LA Clippers, 3rd), DeMarr Johnson (Atlanta, 6th), Jerome Moiso (Boston, 11th), Etan Thomas (Dallas, 12th), Mateen Cleaves (Detroit, 14th) and Jake Tsakalidis (Phoenix, 25th).
But the Bulls have to feel like they can do much better this year than that 2000 class when they absolutely crapped their picks away with … wait for it …: Marcus Fizer (4th), Chris Mihm (7th, traded to Chicago for Jamal Crawford), Dalibor Bagaric (24th), A.J. Guyton (32nd), Jake Voskhul (33rd), Kalid El-Amin (34th).
Fizer was the NCAA player of the year that season at Iowa State but never averaged more than 12.3 points per game, which he did in his second year with the Bulls.
So rather than mock draft like every other blogger and sports site seems to do, I’m going a different route here at The Scrum. (Side note: Mock drafts from web sites with no particular affiliation are some of the most pointless things you can possibly read. If we don’t know who you are, why are we reading who you think is going where?)
Instead, let me just guess — because from owners to GMs to analysts to reporters, that’s all anyone is doing — at who is going to be the most likely busters (using ESPN.com’s mock draft as a rough outline for who might go when. The closer they are to the top, the more buster points they get).
Brook/Robin Lopez, C, Stanford: One half of a nearly-dynamic brother duo, TSN.ca (yeah I went to another site) has Brook going at No. 5 to the Memphis Grizzlies, proving once again that TSN should stay away from talking about basketball and is better off covering guys named Markus rather than guys named Marcus. Anyway, Chad Ford’s mock on ESPN has Brook going No. 10 to New Jersey.
Do we even know which Lopez brother is better? Ford later has younger brother Robin going to Toronto at No. 17, which should make Raptors fans sufficiently nauseous.
Here’s Ford’s logic on Robin, who averaged a less than inspiring 10 ppg/5 rpg at Stanford: The Raptors really need size, toughness and rebounding. While Lopez doesn’t project as a great scorer in the pros, he’s a big, rugged player who could solidify the Raptors’ front line.
Yeah, those guys really go over well. There is no doubt that is the exact type of player the Raptors need — right now as a team they’re pillowy soft — but if you’re already accepting that he can’t score the ball at this level, well that’s a pretty big acceptance.
Meanwhile, Brook seems to translate as an average NBA player. He’s an inside-out 7-foot-1 centre who has been knocked for his rebounding. If he goes in the top five of this draft, consider him the bust of the year.
Kevin Love, C, UCLA: I know, I know. Everyone LOVES Kevin Love. He’s the best NBA-ready big man in the draft. He sees the floor as well as any big man in the past 10 years (or something). He reminds everyone of Bill Walton. It isn’t 1978 anymore, however. Love’s back-to-the-basket ability in the NCAA is one thing, but there’s red flags with him that stand out on an NBA stage. There’s not much explosiveness, his athleticism is middling and … I’m sorry to say this … he’s white. OK, there you go. White big men aren’t effective. Can we all just acknowledge that now? I don’t care if it’s the aforementioned Voskhul or Mihm, Todd MacCulloch, Travis Knight, or Spencer Hawes, there’s a murderer’s row of guys who had a light complexion who, at best, were one-year wonders. And get off me about MacCulloch. I know he had bad feet and had to retire early and I know NBC did an opening-montage piece on him during the NBA Finals one year. It doesn’t mean you’d draft him and lean your team’s hopes on the pick.
When you’re lauded mainly for your outlet pass, as Love is, that doesn’t translate into big-time difference-maker in the NBA.
Danilo Gallinari, SF, Italy: Ford has him going No. 6 to the Knicks. I think the long-suffering NYK fans deserve better than this. I’ll admit to ignorance here — as I would like other analysts to also do — and fully confess that this opinion is based solely on the “I am very worried if my team drafts a Euro because no one ever sees them and, well, they play in Europe” theorem. Say what you want, but it’s a pretty air-tight theorem.
And don’t start arguing the cases of Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili or Leandro Barbosa who, while not all Europeans are still foreign to the U.S., because for every one of those players you reference, there’s at least two or three names we can find that none of us have ever heard of.
One last thought: Ford believes Gallinari goes to the Knicks. If he’s still on the board when New York approaches to pick I will bet my career that they don’t take him. Why? Because one of the most passionate, loyal and devout fan bases in sports might actually set the place on fire. Listen, Gallinari could end up being a great pro (see, you don’t know either) but if you’re the Knicks and you are wanting to assuage the frustration in that infuriated fan base, which has been put through the wringer, are you seriously going to pick a player who will require you to dig up grainy scouting video to show your fans just to prove that he did, in fact, play basketball somewhere last season? It might be fairly weak reasoning but I honestly think you need to do some PR work there and grabbing a good player who the fans have actually heard of is the way to do that.
Joe Alexander, SF, West Virginia: Similar logic here to above with the Knicks and Gallinari, because Ford has Alexander going No. 8 to the Milwaukee Bucks.
Bucks fans are a tortured group, so much so that they happily latched on to ESPN.com’s Bill Simmons and his half-joking quest to become the new Milwaukee GM. That’s a desperate group right there. If the Bucks take Alexander, who is 6-foot-8 and weighs in at a svelte 220 pounds, those fans too might revolt. Alexander is an inside-out style player who struggles shooting the three. So, y’know, kinda struggling with the ‘out’ in that description. And he’s 220 sooooooo ‘inside’ might be a problem, too.
That’s a few of the guys who I think are going to get picked and become marginally to utterly useless for the poor saps who pick them. But every year there’s a few guys who go unnoticed, don’t get the pre-draft hype and eventually turn into great players and everyone is left standing around asking “how did we let him pass us by?” So who might those guys be? Well, we’ll go to the other end of the mock and go from there with a couple players who might make some noise:
Donte Greene, SF, Syracuse: A guy who once upon a time was regarded as a lottery pick, he’s free-falling because scouts are hesititant about his unrefined game. He might be leaving too early. Then again, he could be falling late to a team that would be very lucky to get a guy of his ability in the final picks of the first round.
Roy Hibbert, C, Georgetown: Hibbert is being projected in the mid-to-late first round area but most mocks have him going much later than Ohio State’s Kostas Koufos, who may have more skills than Hibbert. Yet if you’re trying to get a big man late in the first round Hibbert would be someone you’d have to be happy with.
Brandon Rush, G, Kansas: Ford has Rush going in the middle of the first round (15 to Phoenix) and this is that perfect spot in the draft to find guys who are real good but for whatever reasons aren’t gaining the attention of the lottery guys. So, Rush isn’t a lottery-area guy so he’s not being raved about or garnering all the publicity but he’s a player who has gained extended playing experience in college (he’s a junior, which for underclassmen in this day and age is downright veteran). He’s a 6-foot-7 shooting guard, tremendous size for the ‘2′ and he knocks the three down at a good clip. He’s an underrated player who can play a couple of positions and could step in right away in the right situation. If you consider him a sleeper, then consider him MY sleeper of the draft.
For whatever that’s worth.
So there’s a few names and I’m fully admitting to guesswork here because, after all, that’s what drafts are. You roll your dice and hope for the best.